Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Population Dynamics Part II

Does the Earth's Future Depend on Ovaries and Sperm?


I Posted a similar topic earlier last year, but this time I have numbers:

Most Populated Countries  (Source WHO)

Total Population China: 1,328,474,000
Gross national income per capita (PPP international $): 4,660
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births): 24

Total Population India: 1,151,751,000
Gross national income per capita (PPP international $): 2,460
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births): 76

Total Population USA: 302,841,000
Gross national income per capita (PPP international $): 44,070
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births): 8


Indonesia: 228,864,000
 Gross national income per capita (PPP international $):3,310
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births): 34


Total Popultion Brazil: 189,323,000
Gross national income per capita (PPP international $): 8,700
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births): 20


My Island
Total Population Dominican Republic: 9,615,000
Gross national income per capita (PPP international $): 5,550
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births): 29

For China and India, a high population does not equate higher income. For China in particular, this means there is a big discrepancy between labor and personal economic growth in the long run, as there are high number of industries situated in China (i.e., companies from overseas). As you may have heard before, China has surpassed the U.S. as the number one producer of [CO2] but can you blame them? A significant amount of Chinese still use coal as their primary source of electricity. In remote villages, people still have very simple and traditional lives, while in big cities such as Beijing the number of millionaires continues to grow.

As we know, the Chinese realized they needed regulate their population and thus imposed the one child policy (though there are exceptions according to ethnicity, family background). But Did it work?

In India there is no such policy and their high population is a significant contributor to the severe poverty currently afflicting the country. However, the Indian culture encourages education and the number of Indians becoming doctors, engineers, lawyers, etc…continues to grow. But a big number of eduated Indians realize the opportunities they may havein Europe and U.S. and emigrate. Besides, can you really study when you’re hungry?
Literacy in India, source UNICEF
Youth (15–24 years) literacy rate, 2003–2007*, male 87
Adult literacy rate: females as a % of males, 2003–2007* 71

Sometime ago I read an article that highlights a new emerging problem in China (and India) as a consequence of the one child policy (though India does not have such policy): a huge discrepancy between the number of boys and girls. Aborted girl fetuces  (and infanticide) in each country (because of cultural and economical reasons) has lead to a low number of females (brides) for the big number of males (grooms). So the love-seeking-want to-be-grooms have no choice but to look in other regions or look abroad.
Similar article from Scientific American http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=there-are-more-boys-than-girls

I think most of us would glance at the numbers I posted above, but even in a short time it’s not hard to figure out that a large number of people are really suffering from hunger, disease, and poor quality of life, and though China and India are not the only countries in which this is happening, their massive populations really has an impact on their food supply, as well as how much the government can help in terms of health care and welfare benefits.
Malnutrition in India NYT http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/09/world/asia/09food.html]

And so a question remains what should we do about our population problem? Do you actually think we have a population problem? For how much longer can the earth sustain the growing number of humans populating the Earth like mad rabbits? What can we learn from countries with a high level of education, high income, and low birth rates?
It’s not hard to figure out that I  support  population control. I think it will bring prosperity, decrease stress due to food supply, and encourage economic prosperity. Even waiting longer to reproduce can have a positive economic impact on the family. But there are many obstacles worth researching.

What’s your opinion?!




3 comments:

  1. In the last century it's been an exponential growth of world population. In 1907 there was approx. 1.7 billion people whereas in 2007 we reached 6.67 billion inhabitants. And that's almost 4 times more in only one century.

    The recent global population explosion is not only a result of increased birth rate but also the result of an unprecedented decline in the rate of deaths.

    Significant progress in public health and medicine, agriculture increases and phenomenal global economic expansion has contributed to a population explosion as the average life expectancy continues to rise.

    Based on this it seems like we do have a population problem and the question is whether we are able to stabilize the growth or we will die out once the world will become too crowded, too populated for the available resources.

    Recent studies have shown that the developed countries have been able to stabilize the growth of population ( Europe has almost the same population as in 1990 with some countries having a decline ) and that the massive growth comes from undeveloped world where, even thought the number of deaths is high the birth rate is even higher.

    Marlyn, you stated very well in the main article that few countries hold a high percentage of the population on our planet. After adding up, I got to the conclusion that 50% of the world population lives in 6 countries : China ~ 19.83% , India ~ 16.94%, USA ~ 4.55%, Indonesia ~ 3.47%, Brazil ~ 2.79%, Pakistan~2.44%. These 6 countries together have only 22.75% of the land area in the world. I think this is the area where the main focus for this problem should be in but ,since these countries have a lot of issues this process, it's going to be very challenging. But it has to be done!

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  2. I like your calculation. I didnt bother to look at it this way but that's very impressive. Ofcourse, religion has a big part of this discussion.

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  3. Yes, there is definitely a correlation between religion and world populations. The most religious countries tend to have high population density as we can see on this map :

    http://pocketcultures.com/topicsoftheworld/files/2009/06/map-importance-of-religion-by-country.png

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